How Well Did BHSEC Students Predict the Results of the 2020 Election?
Lula Konner, ‘22
Ever since the 2016 Presidential Election season, during which almost all media pundits inaccurately predicted a landslide win for Hillary Clinton, I have become very distrustful of all political polls. This skepticism was only heightened during this election cycle, and indeed, it proved to be largely justified; once again, the vast majority of polls across major news outlets proved to be strikingly inaccurate. On Election Day, just a few hours before all of the polling places closed, I decided to take matters into my own hands and create my own version of a poll. This poll had two twists: One, it exclusively featured BHSEC students, the vast majority of whom are not yet eligible to vote, and two, because of the former fact, rather than asking people who they would vote for, I asked them who they thought the rest of the United States would vote for and what the aftermath would look like. I wondered if, perhaps, high schoolers with little to no experience in political science might have better predictions than the most respected experts, since those experts fell victim to a lot of error anyway. To my pleasant surprise, 132 students across all four grades responded. Here are their answers and how they weigh against the actual results of the election, four days later.
Q: Who will win the presidential election?
What BHSEC Students Said:
83.2% of students said Joe Biden would win. 16.8% of students said Donald Trump would win.
What Actually Happened:
Late Saturday afternoon, it was announced that Joe Biden won the presidency, as his victory in Pennsylvania, an important swing state, helped put him over 270 electoral votes.
Q: When will we know the election results?
What BHSEC Students Said:
A plurality of the votes were for multiple days (41.5%), and most others said weeks (27.7%) or the day after election day (14.6%). A small minority said election night (10.8%).
What Actually Happened: The results were called three days after the election.
Q: If Biden wins, will he win narrowly or by a landslide?
What BHSEC Students Said: 71.7% said narrowly, 25.2% said by a landslide, and 3.1% said other.
What Actually Happened: Biden won narrowly or at least at lot more narrowly than most polls predicted; some polls put Biden ahead by a much greater margin than the races actually were in states such as Wisconsin, and others said that Biden would win in states that he has almost certainly lost, such as Florida and North Carolina.
Q: If Trump wins, will he win narrowly or by a landslide?
What BHSEC Students Said: 77.2% said narrowly. 12.3% said by a landslide. 10.5% said other.
What Actually Happened: Trump did not win at all, but as stated before, he came closer than expected.
Q: How will the public react if Trump wins?
What BHSEC Students Said:
An overwhelming number of people said that there would be riots and overall civil unrest if Trump won.
What Actually Happened: Trump did not win.
How will the public react if Biden wins?
What BHSEC Students Said: Many people also said that there would be riots and violence from Trump supporters and the far right, while others said there would be great relief and joy from liberals throughout the country.
What Actually Happened: When the news was announced late Saturday morning, celebrations across the United States immediately ensued. Throughout New York City, people cheered and banged pots and pans from their windows and balconies, honked from their cars, played music and danced on the streets. Many gathered in centers of the city such as Washington Square Park, Union Square, Grand Army Plaza, Times Square and Stonewall Inn to share their joy with others. I personally went to Washington Square Park, where I witnessed people frolick in the fountain and chant. Senator Chuck Schumer even appeared holding a Biden/Harris placard at one point! Similar kinds of celebrations occurred in many other states as well.
In terms of the reaction of Trump and his supporters, Trump has firmly denied the results on Twitter, tweeting “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT,” and maintaining that the election was stolen. He has also filed various lawsuits with the Supreme Court in hopes that the results will be reevaluated. However, many of his advisors such as Jared Kushner, as well as his wife Melania Trump, have tried to convince him to accept the results. Meanwhile, there have thankfully been very few acts of protest or riots against Biden’s victory. There is, at least in New York, a very positive feeling in the air.
Q: Trump will win these tossup states:
What BHSEC Students Said:
Most people said that Trump would win in 5 out of 13 tossup states: Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Texas, and that he would lose in the other 8: Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
What Actually Happened: As of now, Trump has won in 5 out of 13 tossup states: Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Texas. He has lost in the other 9 tossup states. Instead of losing North Carolina and winning Georgia like students predicted, he won in North Carolina and lost in Georgia.
Biden will win these tossup states:
What BHSEC Students Said:
Most people said that Biden would win in 6 out of 13 tossup states: Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, and that he would lose in the other 7: Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas.
What Actually Happened: As of now, Biden has won in 8 out of 13 tossup states: Arizona, Maine, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. He has lost in 5 of the other tossup states: Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Texas. Most people were right about 6 of the states he won, but he also won 2 more: Arizona and Georgia.
Q: Who will win the Senate?
What BHSEC Students Said: 57.9% said Democrats. 42.1% said Republicans.
What Actually Happened: While the Republicans seemed to be winning the senate for some time, the two parties are currently tied; each party has 48 electoral votes, and there are four up for grabs. It is likely that the majority will not be decided until the two Georgia runoffs in January.
Q: Who will win the House?
What BHSEC Students Said: 77.2% said Democrats. 22.8% said Republicans.
What Actually Happened: The Democrats are projected to win, but it has not been called yet; they have 215 electoral votes, and they need 218 to have the majority.
So, what’s the ultimate takeaway?
Ultimately, I would say that, across the board, BHSEC students’ predictions were surprisingly accurate, and occasionally even more accurate than professional news organizations; for instance, most students predicted that Biden would win narrowly rather than by a landslide, while, hitherto the election, most polls assumed that he would win by a very large margin. As young people, our political beliefs and interests are often dismissed, undermined and quieted. But they shouldn’t be. We are paying attention, and we deserve some more credit.